Forecasting principles
Futurism out towards 2025 is one of two extremes: post-scarce utopia, or, within 5 days an ASI creates nanobot swarms that make humanity extinct. Instead, I want to imagine a future where, 1) we survive, 2) things are generally good, 3) there are social, cultural, psychological tensions (as we’ve always had, but elevated). Some general meta-rules of forecasting.
- Flashpoints: Local flashpoints will usher in global preparation and avoidance, ie: small scale disasters will lead to regulations and counter-measures.
- Escalating p(doom): each year, we become more of our potential for self-extermination, and that triggers reactions & protections.
- Temporary asymmetries: there will be 3-10 year gaps where people can access the future if they put in time, skill, or resources. So for examples, maybe we eventually all have anti-aging drugs, but there might be a temporary gap where only the rich can access it.
- Adaptation: we can barely conceive how weird 10 years into the future might look like (consider Tim Urban’s die-progress-units). But from 2036, 2035 will be completely normal, if not even slightly boring and dated.
- Fractures: for every new trend, there will be counter-forces. The stronger that trend, the more likely the reaction. This creates schisms across many dimensions.
- Paradoxes: new technology enables new governing orders of a complexity that seems paradoxical to our current time. Ie: In order for us to have a functioning internet, we need government IDs to access it, but it’s all on a blockchain, so we have mix of complete surveillance and pseudonymous privacy (more privacy than today).