Coup Scenarios
The norm is for power struggles to happen in private. While each party is positioning itself to the working class, this really might just be a coup–some private elite overthrowing the established public elites. Some scenarios:
- It's thwarted;
- They integrate;
- A struggle—they both die;
- Coup (no change);
- Coup (far worse);
- Coup (better off);
- Coup (the battle kills both, makes room for new);
- Power vacuum (the emergent order is worse);
- New party (exposes both, well-oriented, popular but limited power);
- Constitutional reboot (system-level change).