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Coup Scenarios

· 72 words

The norm is for power struggles to happen in private. While each party is positioning itself to the working class, this really might just be a coup–some private elite overthrowing the established public elites. Some scenarios:

  1. It's thwarted;
  2. They integrate;
  3. A struggle—they both die;
  4. Coup (no change);
  5. Coup (far worse);
  6. Coup (better off);
  7. Coup (the battle kills both, makes room for new);
  8. Power vacuum (the emergent order is worse);
  9. New party (exposes both, well-oriented, popular but limited power);
  10. Constitutional reboot (system-level change).